Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:40:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6C 0x6cb6…ec83 sports 446 markets active 0h ago coverage 308d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 308d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,406 (+2%) realized +$2,406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%183W / 261L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$177est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$48
7 days−$67
14 days+$121
30 days−$296
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$1,085
sports 22% +$1,054
other 10% +$288
politics 2% +$80
crypto 1% −$73
tech 0% +$31
finance 0% −$13
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.9% -23.9% 33% 25% -16.4%
≤30d 41 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 29% -11.0%
≤90d 120 -1.1% -10.6% 48% 31% -8.5%
all 444 -8.1% -16.9% 41% 30% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 30% -8.0%
10% -24.8% 22% -16.8%
15% -32.1% 14% -24.8%
20% -38.7% 10% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$30 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

308d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$2,406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses183 / 261
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$177
Open positions1
Markets (closed)444 / 446
History coverage308d ⚠
Avg bet$328
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 444 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Farman Hasanov 61¢ 60¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 27 $105 −$5 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $20 +$6 +32%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $86 −$21 -24%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 27 $63 +$37 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $43 −$42 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Jun 27 $39 −$2 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre Jun 27 $208 +$28 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig Jun 27 $208 −$49 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $28 −$15 -53%
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr Jun 20 $70 +$1 +1%
UFC Fight Night: Otari Tanzilovi vs. Shane Collins (Featherweight, Pre Jun 20 $11 −$4 -35%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 20 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $5 −$2 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $2,320 +$190 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $9 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $439 −$15 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $4,412 +$23 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $23 −$1 -6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $584 −$32 -6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $22 −$10 -46%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $36 −$4 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 09 $26 −$26 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $269 −$151 -56%
UFC Fight Night: Junior Tafa vs. Iwo Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, M Jun 07 $127 +$33 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $101 +$24 +24%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 06 $40 −$2 -6%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $50 −$14 -27%
UFC Fight Night: Priscila Cachoeira vs. Chelsea Chandler (Women's Bant Jun 06 $102 +$12 +12%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $16 +$9 +53%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $125 −$12 -10%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $80 −$80 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Luis Felipe Dias vs. Yi Sak Lee (Middleweight, Prelim May 30 $201 +$60 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $211 +$28 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $102 +$21 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Rodrigo Vera vs. Zhu Kangjie (Featherweight, Prelims) May 30 $53 +$47 +89%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $103 +$23 +22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $6,338 −$148 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $114 −$46 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $943 −$74 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $208 −$5 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 27 $26,174 +$37 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 27 $2 $0 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 26 $1,100 +$56 +5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1,032 +$79 +8%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 26 $1,533 −$23 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $590 +$65 +11%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $17 −$2 -14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 23 $249 −$5 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 21 $282 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) BUY Farman Hasanov 61¢ $19 2m
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Manuel Torres 51¢ $101 13m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL 9¢ $26 13m
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 0¢ $0 14m
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 100¢ $100 16m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 62¢ $63 30m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY 7¢ $20 47m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, SELL Andrey Pulyaev 37¢ $36 57m
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, BUY Andrey Pulyaev 38¢ $39 58m
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) SELL Javier Reyes 13¢ $1 1h
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) BUY Javier Reyes 55¢ $43 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 59¢ $51 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 9¢ $6 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 85¢ $28 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 70¢ $12 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 30¢ $5 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Under 20¢ $9 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 70¢ $70 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 60¢ $60 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 50¢ $20 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 50¢ $32 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 45¢ $46 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 44¢ $41 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 63¢ $64 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre SELL Bekzat Almakhan 73¢ $72 1h
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Pre BUY Bekzat Almakhan 38¢ $39 1h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Jefferson Nascimento 21¢ $21 2h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig BUY Jefferson Nascimento 36¢ $36 2h
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweig SELL Jefferson Nascimento 37¢ $37 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.15 · official $18.15 (match) · 3500 history records