Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:15:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
6C 0x6cb5…6fba other 102 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%16W / 84L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$2
politics 23% −$3
sports 8% +$27
economics 5% −$1
world 2% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 18% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +4.9% -5.1% 16% 12% -9.3%
all 100 +4.9% -5.1% 16% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 12% -9.3%
10% -14.2% 12% -18.0%
15% -22.5% 11% -25.9%
20% -30.1% 10% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses16 / 84
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)100 / 102
History coverage86d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 05 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 05 $48 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $317 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $101 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $263 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 19 $132 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $115 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $114 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 06 $115 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $114 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $239 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $117 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $116 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $197 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $239 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $234 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $124 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 16 $200 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $119 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $137 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $119 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $367 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 11 $118 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $122 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 10 $124 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $125 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $122 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 14h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 17h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 4d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 6d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 7d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $23 12d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $23 12d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $23 14d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $27 22d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 24d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 24d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 27d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 27d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 29d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 30d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $20 31d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $114 34d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $115 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.12 · official $105.12 (match) · 268 history records