Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6caf…be00 crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$274 (-9%) realized −$274 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%28W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$240
politics 27% −$1
other 1% $0
economics 1% −$12
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +19.1% +7.8% 57% 57% +6.8%
≤30d 7 +19.1% +7.8% 57% 57% +6.8%
≤90d 10 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 40% -0.8%
all 55 -10.9% -19.4% 51% 33% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 33% -17.2%
10% -27.1% 33% -25.1%
15% -34.1% 33% -32.4%
20% -40.6% 33% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$42 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$274
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses28 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)55 / 55
History coverage546d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 55 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$23 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 12 $11 −$11 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 12 $18 $0 +1%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$43 +86%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$43 +86%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$44 +87%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Feb 23 $51 +$44 +86%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$45 +90%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$45 +91%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$47 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$47 +94%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$47 +94%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$75 +151%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 23 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 23 $110 +$98 +89%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 23 $50 +$37 +74%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -99%
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Feb 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Feb 23 $110 −$108 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Feb 23 $110 −$108 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 23 $100 +$92 +92%
Will Charli XCX release a new song in 2026? Feb 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Dec 10 $106 −$106 -100%
Will the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act (H.R.5371) be si Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Outdoor Boys post another video by November 30? Nov 11 $5 $0 -3%
Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition Nov 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31? Nov 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will Olympique Lyon play in Ligue 1? Sep 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ace Bailey play in the Jazz Summer League? Jul 14 $4 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $13 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $46 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $46 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? BUY No 98¢ $18 45d
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 50d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $50 114d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $50 114d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 114d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $50 114d
Solana Up or Down - February 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $50 114d
XRP Up or Down - February 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 171 history records