Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:10:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cab…8de4 other 145 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$368 (-27%) realized −$395 · open +$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day61.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$238now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$233
sports 44% −$143
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 -34.3% -40.6% 18% 17% -45.4%
≤30d 125 -34.3% -40.6% 18% 17% -45.4%
≤90d 125 -34.3% -40.6% 18% 17% -45.4%
all 125 -34.3% -40.6% 18% 17% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 17% -45.4%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 17% -50.6%
15% -51.4% 17% -55.4%
20% -56.2% 15% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$7 · ×1.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$238
Realized−$395
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 103
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions20
Markets (closed)125 / 145
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day61.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 31¢ $46 $85 +$38 (+82%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+53%)
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 28¢ 30¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 42¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 31¢ 30¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-16%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+54%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 31¢ 18¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-45%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-65%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-60%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$24 +245%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 +$22 +733%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$11 +108%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +236%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$11 +111%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $43 −$13 -30%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 38m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 49m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $7 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $0 1h
Will France score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 31¢ $10 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $10 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $9 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 12h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.54 · official $237.54 (match) · 364 history records