Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cab…4880 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$694 (-57%) realized −$299 · open −$395
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate18%9W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$450
other 34% −$242
sports 5% −$13
crypto 3% −$3
finance 2% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -25.0% -32.1% 0% 0% -32.1%
≤30d 1 -25.0% -32.1% 0% 0% -32.1%
≤90d 3 -44.9% -50.1% 0% 0% -61.8%
all 49 -17.7% -25.6% 18% 16% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 16% -51.1%
10% -32.7% 14% -55.8%
15% -39.2% 14% -60.1%
20% -45.1% 14% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$299
Unrealized−$395
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage125d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 1¢ 0¢ $500 $105 −$395 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 −$6 -25%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 03 $40 −$4 -11%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $66 −$65 -98%
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? Mar 11 $83 −$51 -62%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 61 million views on day 4 Mar 11 $48 −$48 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Mar 08 $47 −$47 -100%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? Mar 06 $111 −$26 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? Mar 06 $31 −$3 -10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? Mar 06 $30 −$1 -3%
Will MrBeast say "Impossible" during his next YouTube video? Mar 06 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $3 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $4 $0 -2%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 05 $2 $0 -5%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $3 $0 -6%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $2 $0 -12%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 05 $4 $0 -9%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 05 $68 +$8 +11%
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 31? Mar 04 $66 −$56 -84%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 03 $5 $0 -8%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$9 +171%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 28 $1 $0 -2%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 23 $2 −$1 -29%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 20 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $4 $0 -4%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 20 $1 $0 -27%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-02-14? Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Queens Park Rangers FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Feb 14 $4 −$1 -22%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Feb 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 236.5 Feb 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 233.5 Feb 13 $3 −$3 -93%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 234.5 Feb 13 $3 −$2 -78%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 232.5 Feb 13 $3 −$2 -63%
Mavericks vs. Lakers: O/U 235.5 Feb 13 $2 −$2 -83%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5 Feb 13 $1 +$1 +96%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5 Feb 13 $1 +$1 +100%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5 Feb 13 $1 +$1 +112%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 238.5 Feb 13 $1 +$1 +127%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 239.5 Feb 13 $1 +$1 +138%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5 Feb 13 $2 +$2 +122%
Mavericks vs. Lakers Feb 13 $4 −$3 -81%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $2 $0 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 13? Feb 12 $2 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $67 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $26 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $45 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $33 16h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $67 18h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $67 23h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $68 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $15 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $26 37h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $66 47h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $20 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $19 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $25 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $36 74d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $40 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 76d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 20¢ $66 82d
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $32 97d
100m views on a MrBeast video in the first week by March 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $83 97d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 59 and 61 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 8¢ $48 97d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 6¢ $2 100d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY No 14¢ $45 101d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? SELL No 38¢ $85 102d
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by March 15? BUY No 35¢ $28 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? SELL No 9¢ $28 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 7? BUY No 10¢ $31 102d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? SELL Down 35¢ $29 102d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 6? BUY Down 36¢ $30 102d
Will MrBeast say "Impossible" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 103d
Will MrBeast say "Impossible" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.41 · official $105.41 (match) · 175 history records