Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:26:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6caa…4fb3 sports 504 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$533 (-11%) realized −$531 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%200W / 280L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$25
14 days−$3
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$401
other 9% −$155
crypto 2% −$30
world 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -19.0% -26.7% 46% 42% -0.6%
≤30d 146 -10.0% -18.6% 56% 40% -21.6%
≤90d 480 -16.4% -24.4% 42% 36% -20.6%
all 480 -16.4% -24.4% 42% 36% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 36% -20.6%
10% -31.6% 31% -28.2%
15% -38.2% 30% -35.1%
20% -44.3% 28% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized−$531
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses200 / 280
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions24
Markets (closed)480 / 504
History coverage79d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 76¢ $76 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+138%)
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? No 52¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+26%)
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 58¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 53¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 32¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 50¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 34¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? No 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 35¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Aleksandar Pavlović win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Desire Doue be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-65%)
Will Luis Javier Suárez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 32¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $53 +$23 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $59 −$34 -58%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 17 $31 +$22 +70%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 16 $28 +$3 +10%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $23 +$5 +20%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +177%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $14 +$9 +63%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $12 +$2 +16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ shots Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Breel Embolo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +317%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $1 +$2 +186%
Birmingham: Billy Harris vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Gibraltar (-1.5) Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Gold vs Ghost Gaming GC (BO3) - VCT Game C Jun 04 $36 −$36 -100%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $4 +$1 +34%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $4 +$1 +12%
Poland vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $4 +$1 +19%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $5 $0 +5%
Spread: Italy (-2.5) Jun 03 $4 +$1 +27%
Tyler: Yuta Shimizu vs Dane Sweeny Jun 03 $2 +$3 +122%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $4 $0 +11%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $3 +$3 +82%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $3 +$5 +163%
Heilbronn: Max Schoenhaus vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 03 $4 +$1 +17%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $6 +$2 +24%
Prostejov: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Lautaro Midon Jun 03 $3 +$2 +56%
Birmingham: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 03 $5 $0 +10%
Birmingham: Elias Ymer vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 03 $3 +$2 +62%
Foggia: Laura Mair vs Yiming Dang Jun 03 $3 +$2 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $76 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $76 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 43¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 43¢ $1 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $53 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Under 100¢ $53 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $31 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 5h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $30 7h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 8h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 88¢ $28 8h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 44¢ $2 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $27 25h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $2 26h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $1 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 99¢ $3 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 82¢ $23 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 99¢ $23 27h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 60¢ $14 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $14 30h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 85¢ $12 32h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $12 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $10 36h
Hannibal Mejbri: 2+ shots BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 12¢ $1 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.88 · official $99.88 (match) · 1601 history records