Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:34:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ca6…58b1 other 169 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 140L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$20
sports 25% −$14
politics 18% −$7
crypto 11% +$4
economics 7% $0
world 5% −$1
culture 4% $0
tech 2% −$2
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -12.3%
≤30d 3 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 0% -9.7%
all 169 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)169 / 169
History coverage162d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 169 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $325 −$1 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $155 −$1 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $60 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 27 $255 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $111 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $454 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $219 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $174 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $100 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $130 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $142 −$1 -0%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Iran strike Turkey by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $59 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 12 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $269 $0 -0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $105 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $50 1h
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 8h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 91¢ $47 15d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 91¢ $47 15d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $56 23d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $56 23d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 35d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 35d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $46 48d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $47 48d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $47 49d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $47 49d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 49d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 49d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $60 49d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $61 49d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $52 49d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $53 50d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 50d
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 50d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $46 50d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $46 50d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 50d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 50d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $45 53d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $45 53d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $59 53d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $58 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL No 96¢ $65 53d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 94¢ $64 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records