Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:19:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6C 0x6ca6…4b74 sports 716 markets active 1h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$691 (+2%) realized +$948 · open −$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%283W / 420L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$277est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,111
7 days+$1,746
14 days+$2,102
30 days+$2,678
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$1,526
other 15% +$212
weather 11% −$1,037
politics 1% −$223
crypto 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +25.3% +13.4% 57% 57% +19.2%
≤30d 406 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 50% +3.8%
≤90d 535 +1.3% -8.4% 47% 47% -1.0%
all 703 -2.7% -11.9% 40% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 40% -9.0%
10% -20.4% 39% -17.7%
15% -28.1% 38% -25.7%
20% -35.1% 36% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$37 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$1,372
Realized+$948
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses283 / 420
Est. fees paid−$277
Open positions13
Markets (closed)703 / 716
History coverage522d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 703 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $433 $282 −$151 (-35%)
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $243 $196 −$47 (-19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $194 $167 −$27 (-14%)
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) Noskova 51¢ 100¢ $75 $147 +$72 (+96%)
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Corentin Moutet 39¢ 38¢ $130 $126 −$4 (-3%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Under 52¢ 52¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $45 −$45 (-50%)
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Marozsan 45¢ 12¢ $75 $20 −$55 (-73%)
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Quinn 47¢ 46¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $32 +$28 +90%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $62 +$58 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $65 −$64 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $88 +$62 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $82 +$83 +101%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $62 +$58 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $79 +$61 +76%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $25 +$25 +101%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$75 +307%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 17 $61 −$5 -8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $84 −$82 -99%
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$55 +105%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Pegula vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $50 −$30 -59%
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $128 −$125 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $82 +$68 +83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $82 +$68 +83%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $81 +$69 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $81 +$69 +86%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $77 −$76 -99%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $107 +$143 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $76 −$75 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $53 +$87 +165%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $101 +$136 +134%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $107 +$113 +105%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $102 +$406 +397%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $35 +$47 +134%
Set Handicap: Bublik (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 16 $42 +$33 +80%
Set Handicap: Keys (-1.5) vs Wang (+1.5) Jun 16 $36 +$42 +119%
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $36 −$35 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $75 +$75 +101%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $103 −$3 -3%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $78 +$62 +79%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $67 +$43 +65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $69 −$68 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $79 −$78 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $92 +$158 +172%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $79 −$78 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $47 +$38 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $66 +$49 +73%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $67 +$53 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 47¢ $18 58m
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) BUY Marozsan 45¢ $76 1h
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Parry (+1.5) BUY Noskova 51¢ $76 1h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Corentin Moutet 39¢ $132 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 4h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 52¢ $105 4h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $105 4h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $32 8h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 56¢ $65 11h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $62 17h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 51¢ $62 17h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz SELL NC Dinos 41¢ $56 17h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 49¢ $82 17h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $88 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 55¢ $84 17h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $25 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $25 17h
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) BUY Alexandrova 42¢ $76 18h
Set Handicap: Hurkacz (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 48¢ $52 20h
Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Shapovalov (+1.5) BUY Shapovalov 50¢ $76 22h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Lorenzo Sonego 21¢ $128 22h
Pegula vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $40 25h
Pegula vs. Siniakova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $77 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 54¢ $82 39h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 54¢ $82 39h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 50¢ $76 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $36 39h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 42¢ $101 47h
Khachanov vs. Quinn: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 1¢ $36 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,372.08 · official $1,379.11 (match) · 2326 history records