Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ca6…769f crypto 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-9%) realized −$14 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%41W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% $0
other 25% −$10
world 8% −$2
sports 6% −$5
politics 5% −$1
weather 2% −$3
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -22.7% -30.0% 67% 67% -15.9%
≤30d 49 -18.3% -26.0% 39% 33% -23.6%
≤90d 95 -17.7% -25.6% 43% 38% -21.5%
all 95 -17.7% -25.6% 43% 38% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -21.5%
10% -32.7% 33% -29.0%
15% -39.2% 24% -35.9%
20% -45.2% 19% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses41 / 54
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)95 / 112
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Blue tsunami in 2026? No 54¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 61¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No 81¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Another pandemic before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? No 43¢ 35¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe Mbappe 98¢ 65¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Jun 07 $1 +$1 +128%
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Coal" 5+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during coal announcement? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$2 -64%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 02 $1 +$3 +288%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? May 31 $1 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $7 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +106%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 28 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +24%
Will ICEMAN debut No.1 on Billboard 200? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will "Basketball" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast? May 28 $1 +$1 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 25 $1 $0 -11%
ITF Kayseri: Patrick Schoen vs Romain Faucon May 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will 3+ weightlifting world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Gam May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $1 +$7 +650%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 24 $1 +$1 +73%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +55%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 1h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $2 8d
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 8d
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappe BUY Mbappe 98¢ $1 11d
Will Trump say "Maduro" this week? BUY No 86¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 5? BUY No 59¢ $1 11d
Will Trump say "Coal" 5+ times during coal announcement? BUY No 19¢ $1 11d
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during coal announcement? BUY No 75¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 13d
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? BUY No 43¢ $1 13d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 15d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $1 15d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $1 15d
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $1 15d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 61¢ $1 15d
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 73¢ $1 15d
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 15d
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 31? BUY No 67¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.41 · official $17.41 (match) · 199 history records