Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ca3…51ca world 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$1
other 19% $0
finance 9% $0
politics 7% −$5
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 0% -5.4%
≤30d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 31 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 0% -10.8%
10% -20.8% 0% -19.4%
15% -28.5% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.5% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage449d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $38 +$2 +5%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $68 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $11 $0 +3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 22 $36 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 20 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $41 $0 -1%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Dec 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will Karol Nawrocki win the most votes in the first round of the Polis May 20 $5 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 13? May 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Conservative Party win by 0–24 seats? Apr 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Apr 27 $4 $0 -2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 20 $7 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 20 $2 $0 -25%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 30 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $30 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $18 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $37 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $25 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $2 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $35 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 86 history records