Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6ca3…bb21 other 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,900 (+31%) realized +$1,929 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%26W / 54L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day27.3pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$906now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$2,938
other 38% −$476
world 1% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 +39.4% +26.1% 32% 32% +39.9%
≤30d 80 +39.4% +26.1% 32% 32% +39.9%
≤90d 80 +39.4% +26.1% 32% 32% +39.9%
all 80 +39.4% +26.1% 32% 32% +39.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.1% 32% +39.9%
10% ← realistic here +14.1% 32% +26.6%
15% +3.0% 32% +14.3%
20% -7.1% 31% +3.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +109% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$42 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.07 per $1 lost it wins $2.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$906
Realized+$1,929
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses26 / 54
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions28
Markets (closed)80 / 123
History coverage6d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day27.3
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Croatia to score first vs. England? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Panama leading at halftime? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 23¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $26 −$22 -86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $51 −$37 -72%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$198 +643%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $26 +$252 +982%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $26 +$165 +644%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 −$35 -71%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $31 +$15 +48%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $127 −$127 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $76 +$106 +139%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $26 −$20 -76%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 59m
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 2¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a BUY 2¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Croatia to score first vs. England? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $906.27 · official $1,290.30 · 243 history records