Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:08:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6ca3…590f
other · 415 markets active 22h ago
0.0score
−$3,382 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4,845 · open −$8,205
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$42,190
Realized+$4,845
Unrealized−$8,205
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses160 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$594
Open positions1
Markets (closed)414 / 415
History coverage227d
Avg bet$1,989
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%
Chart Positions 1 History 414 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$689
7 days−$689
14 days+$12,236
30 days+$9,630
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 66¢ 56¢ $50,395 $42,190 −$8,205 (-16%)
Will MrBeast's latest video get 24 million or more views on day 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) FURIA 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? No 40¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-12-09? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-03-14? No 54¢ 0¢ $570 $0 −$570 (-100%)
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Makhmudov 16¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner GIANTX 44¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-04-21? No 48¢ 0¢ $503 $0 −$503 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's latest video get 12–14 million views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? No 89¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-11-26? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Wildcard 22¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? No 79¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BNK FEARX 34¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? No 55¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $494 $0 −$494 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-14? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? No 61¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-15? No 53¢ 0¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-19? No 37¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $10,150 −$689 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $39,293 +$12,925 +33%
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 27 $891 −$521 -58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $13,894 −$4,929 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $11,290 −$3,813 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $19,703 +$5,770 +29%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $1,003 +$1,522 +152%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? May 19 $1,061 −$55 -5%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 18 $71 −$69 -98%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? May 18 $3,611 −$162 -4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $6,276 −$310 -5%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $803 +$347 +43%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $110 −$86 -78%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $223 −$218 -98%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $313 +$87 +28%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $105 −$21 -20%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $720 −$55 -8%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $183 −$37 -20%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $188 −$36 -19%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 10 $10,000 −$222 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 10 $4,000 +$402 +10%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1,019 −$65 -6%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $31 −$4 -11%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $21 −$4 -17%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $29 −$28 -98%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 06 $11,418 +$2,040 +18%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $305 −$300 -98%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $202 −$102 -50%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 04 $369 −$360 -98%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 04 $2,981 −$424 -14%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $546 +$148 +27%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $202 −$138 -68%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $101 −$1 -1%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $112 +$133 +119%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 28 $38,521 +$5,064 +13%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1,012 −$508 -50%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $514 −$507 -99%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $230 −$109 -47%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$89 -89%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$79 -79%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1,000 +$1,051 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 61% +$1,032
other 22% −$3,160
tech 9% +$5,224
sports 5% −$7,288
politics 2% +$168
culture 1% +$573
economics 0% +$31
crypto 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $8,177 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $8,177 21h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $1 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $860 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $274 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $150 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $149 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $22,218 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $5,000 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $5,000 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $10,000 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 46¢ $1,274 11d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $8,726 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52,218 11d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 35¢ $136 16d
Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 35¢ $367 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $16,443 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 47¢ $8,965 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 37¢ $7,478 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17,939 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $16,302 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $705 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $98 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 98¢ $835 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 74¢ $2,526 23d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 39¢ $392 23d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 39¢ $102 23d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY No 39¢ $509 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 70¢ $1,003 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $975 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.8% -15.7% 0% 0% -15.7%
≤30d 14 -15.1% -23.2% 29% 29% -1.4%
≤90d 141 -14.1% -22.2% 29% 27% -5.6%
all 414 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 26% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 26% -8.9%
10% -22.6% 20% -17.6%
15% -30.1% 16% -25.6%
20% -37.0% 14% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42,190.43 · official $42,190.43 (match) · 1396 history records