Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6ca3…78d8 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+1%) realized +$38 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 60% -7.4%
≤30d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 60% -7.4%
≤90d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 60% -7.4%
all 10 +9.1% -1.3% 80% 60% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 60% -7.4%
10% ← realistic here -10.8% 40% -16.3%
15% -19.4% 20% -24.4%
20% -27.3% 10% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$29 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$38
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)10 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 20¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 66¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) Iraq 63¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $69 +$7 +10%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $61 +$20 +34%
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 Jun 26 $27 +$3 +12%
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $41 +$13 +31%
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $40 +$3 +7%
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) Jun 26 $41 −$39 -96%
Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $24 +$5 +20%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $24 −$19 -79%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $29 +$11 +38%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $4 +$5 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $76 6m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $57 6m
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 100¢ $31 24m
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 98¢ $53 24m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 92¢ $28 29m
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 99¢ $43 30m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $41 31m
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) SELL Iraq 3¢ $2 32m
Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 37m
Spread: Senegal (-4.5) BUY Iraq 63¢ $8 41m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $8 43m
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 65¢ $20 47m
Spread: Senegal (-3.5) BUY Iraq 79¢ $20 53m
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 18¢ $5 59m
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 95¢ $25 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $40 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 91¢ $40 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $4 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 73¢ $41 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 87¢ $27 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 72¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $24 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $24 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 75¢ $20 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $41 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $20 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $8 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 28 history records