Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6C 0x6ca2…134f crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$199 (+0%) realized +$195 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%195W / 237L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$11
14 days+$37
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$2,655
other 22% −$657
sports 9% −$1,486
world 5% −$405
politics 4% −$437
tech 2% +$126
economics 0% +$17
finance 0% +$3
culture 0% −$7
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +42.3% +28.7% 70% 60% -7.3%
≤30d 27 +35.8% +22.9% 70% 56% -1.1%
≤90d 153 -35.3% -41.5% 33% 28% -15.7%
all 432 -7.4% -16.2% 45% 37% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 37% -9.8%
10% -24.2% 30% -18.5%
15% -31.6% 24% -26.3%
20% -38.3% 17% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$61 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses195 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions2
Markets (closed)432 / 434
History coverage440d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 51¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+96%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 +$8 +26%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$9 +282%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $83 −$5 -6%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 17 $25 +$7 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $68 +$17 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$17 +166%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$18 +361%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 +$16 +58%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 14 $115 −$5 -4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -84%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $84 −$83 -98%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $95 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 07 $127 −$32 -26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $65 +$63 +97%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Jun 05 $73 −$8 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 04 $65 +$7 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 04 $130 +$55 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 03 $104 +$4 +4%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? May 10 $1,498 −$108 -7%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $11 −$4 -39%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $178 +$27 +15%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $429 +$83 +19%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Corentin Moutet vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 09 $51 +$121 +237%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $111 −$109 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Solana Sierra May 09 $56 −$53 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 09 $19 −$6 -30%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? May 08 $512 −$24 -5%
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $51 −$7 -14%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dino Prizmic vs Novak Djokovic May 08 $53 +$24 +46%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 07 $152 +$222 +146%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 06 $362 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 04 $9,339 +$1,956 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 02 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 3? May 02 $53 −$50 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 02 $4 −$4 -94%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? Apr 28 $562 −$135 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 51¢ $5 27m
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $12 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 47¢ $39 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $31 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 5h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 14¢ $5 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? SELL No 48¢ $6 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY No 36¢ $5 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $5 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 51¢ $22 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $10 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 36¢ $12 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $3 27h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 7¢ $5 33h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 92¢ $88 33h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 82¢ $58 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 34h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 77¢ $20 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 45¢ $24 35h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 35¢ $20 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $68 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 55¢ $10 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 53¢ $10 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 51¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 66¢ $11 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL No 30¢ $9 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 57¢ $10 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 16¢ $5 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 49¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.21 · official $19.24 (match) · 1568 history records