Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:29:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ca1…17e5 weather 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,205 (+9%) realized +$1,242 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%93W / 194L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day29.9pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$178
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% +$1,275
other 30% −$404
crypto 1% −$100
politics 1% +$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -98.5% -98.6% 0% 0% -97.7%
≤30d 38 +34.6% +21.8% 39% 39% -15.6%
≤90d 214 +6.1% -4.0% 28% 27% -6.3%
all 287 +19.9% +8.4% 32% 32% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.4% 32% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.9% 30% -13.0%
15% -11.4% 29% -21.4%
20% -20.1% 25% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$36 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$1,242
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses93 / 194
Open positions1
Markets (closed)287 / 288
History coverage111d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day29.9
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $38 $1 −$37 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $29 −$29 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? Jun 21 $66 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 −$59 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$6 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $91 −$89 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $59 −$57 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $12 −$7 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 −$15 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $32 +$49 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 +$19 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$15 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$50 +155%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$12 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$24 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $33 +$24 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$27 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $43 −$6 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$5 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 +$6 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $38 +$41 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $147 +$34 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 +$7 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$73 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 20? May 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 13? May 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $125 −$123 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 12? May 12 $4 +$24 +644%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on May 11? May 12 $34 +$44 +131%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on May 11? May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on May 11? May 11 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 10? May 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on May 6? May 06 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on May 6? May 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $7 +$26 +356%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $54 −$52 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 39°C on June 28? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 22? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $29 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 87¢ $31 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? SELL Yes 59¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C or below on June 21? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $62 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 20? BUY Yes 9¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $1.17 (match) · 3492 history records