Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:59:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6ca0…c64c sports 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+7%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%91W / 65L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$14
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$23
other 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +13.6% +2.8% 48% 48% +6.4%
≤30d 151 +5.3% -4.8% 60% 58% +1.9%
≤90d 156 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 56% +0.2%
all 156 +2.9% -6.9% 58% 56% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 56% +0.2%
10% -15.8% 56% -9.4%
15% -23.9% 51% -18.2%
20% -31.4% 44% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses91 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)156 / 162
History coverage31d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Under 65¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $2 +$3 +134%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $2 +$5 +238%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +129%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $1 +$5 +509%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +97%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 +$1 +83%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1 +$1 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 +$1 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $1 +$1 +57%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $1 +$1 +85%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1 +$1 +73%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $1 $0 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $1 +$1 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $1 $0 +40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $1 +$1 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $13 +$10 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1 +$1 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $2 +$1 +60%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $2 +$1 +50%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 +$2 +165%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 25¢ $2 13h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $1 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AN BUY 20¢ $2 18h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $1 40h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $2 40h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Côte d'Ivoi BUY 19¢ $2 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) AND Haiti v BUY 39¢ $4 2d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 47¢ $2 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $2 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 61¢ $1 3d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 53¢ $1 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 43¢ $1 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win BUY 29¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 23¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 BUY 16¢ $1 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 SELL $0 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2 BUY 38¢ $1 4d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 51¢ $1 4d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 70¢ $1 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $1 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 64¢ $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 24¢ $1 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 43¢ $1 4d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Washington Nationals 71¢ $1 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 5d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 5d
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.98 · official $1.98 (match) · 280 history records