Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c9f…d1a9 crypto 490 markets active 5d ago coverage 153d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 152d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$900 (-0%) realized −$896 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate91%443W / 44L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$496per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$981
other 1% −$1,164
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 2 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 64 -1.3% -10.7% 94% 8% -9.6%
all 487 -2.0% -11.4% 91% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -10.3%
10% -19.8% 3% -18.9%
15% -27.6% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$615) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$131 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$896
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses443 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)487 / 490
History coverage153d ⚠
Avg bet$496
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $11 $9 −$3 (-24%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
HYPE Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9PM ET May 17 $544 +$2 +0%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $101 +$12 +12%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $76 +$21 +28%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $152 +$20 +13%
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$7 -63%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$5 -47%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $322 +$15 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET May 16 $586 +$13 +2%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $351 −$350 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $26 +$14 +53%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 15 $117 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8PM ET May 12 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET May 12 $189 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 12 $385 +$11 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 12 $330 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET May 12 $234 +$16 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 12 $397 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 11 $183 +$15 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 11 $499 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET May 11 $384 +$16 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET May 11 $495 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET May 11 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 11AM ET May 10 $1,498 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 10 $92 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 10 $785 +$15 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 10 $189 +$9 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 10 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 02 $292 +$8 +3%
XRP Up or Down - May 2, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 02 $247 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 02 $145 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Apr 26 $79 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 26 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Apr 26 $1,861 +$34 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9AM ET Apr 26 $1,543 +$17 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 25 $1,186 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 25 $496 +$18 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 25 $355 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 25 $693 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 3PM ET Apr 25 $599 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 3PM ET Apr 25 $993 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 19 $559 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 19 $599 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 19 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 19 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 19 $294 +$6 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $131 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $39 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $75 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $288 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $9 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 17, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 31d
HYPE Up or Down - May 17, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 31d
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 31d
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $97 31d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 89¢ $172 31d
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 31d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 31d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $319 31d
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? BUY No 77¢ $76 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $599 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $98 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $96 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $31 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $47 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $98 32d
Will Romania win the televote for Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 32d
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $18 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.13 · official $22.14 (match) · 3500 history records