Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c9f…8e7d weather 514 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d only
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,533 (+14%) realized +$1,532 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%145W / 492L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$716
7 days−$315
14 days−$315
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% +$459
other 33% +$266
sports 12% +$131
crypto 3% −$8
world 2% −$138
politics 1% −$47
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -31.6% -38.1% 18% 15% -13.1%
≤30d 269 -15.7% -23.8% 20% 17% -14.7%
≤90d 637 +11.8% +1.1% 23% 20% -9.0%
all 637 +11.8% +1.1% 23% 20% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.1% 20% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 17% -17.7%
15% -17.4% 15% -25.7%
20% -25.5% 14% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$8 · ×3.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$1,532
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses145 / 492
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)637 / 514
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 87¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 353 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 5? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 1? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C or below on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 30? Jun 17 $3 −$4 -107%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C or higher on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 21? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 5? Jun 17 $7 −$10 -148%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 20? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 5? Jun 17 $1 −$4 -242%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 2? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on April 3? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 5? Jun 17 $0 +$2 +865%
Will the US strike 2 countries in February 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 24? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 9? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -456%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on April 24? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 7? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 5? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C or higher on April 9? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 24? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 21? Jun 17 $20 −$14 -70%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on April 26? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 7? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on April 5? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on April 24? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or higher on April 25? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 1? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$7 -148%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on May 4? Jun 17 $5 −$9 -171%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 4? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 14? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 6? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on April 2? Jun 17 $1 −$5 -339%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 6? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +203%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 5? Jun 17 $3 −$7 -228%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on April 2 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on May 4? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on May 6? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 24? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $110 56m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 59m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $54 1h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $168 2h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 2h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 91¢ $13 2h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 2h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 48¢ $36 2h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 97¢ $97 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $16 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $20 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $43 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $32 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $86 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 44¢ $2 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $87 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.37 · official $4.37 (match) · 3500 history records