Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c9e…50ee other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$279 (-10%) realized −$280 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%15W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$99
14 days−$286
30 days−$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$202
sports 28% +$50
world 8% −$65
crypto 3% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-48.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -25.6% -32.7% 14% 12% -0.4%
≤30d 84 -45.5% -50.7% 14% 13% -22.1%
≤90d 87 -45.6% -50.7% 15% 14% -23.1%
all 89 -42.9% -48.3% 17% 16% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.3% 16% -20.6%
10% -53.3% 16% -28.2%
15% -57.8% 16% -35.1%
20% -61.9% 12% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$15 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$280
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses15 / 74
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)89 / 95
History coverage99d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $199 $197 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$63 +62%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $300 +$12 +4%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +982%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$77 +51%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 +$73 +712%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $201 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 16h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 16h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 21¢ $10 24h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 31¢ $20 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $300 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $10 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.91 · official $279.91 (match) · 125 history records