trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 33% | 33% | -13.3% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +3.6% | -6.3% | 60% | 20% | -7.8% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +2.3% | -7.4% | 50% | 17% | -7.9% |
| all | 20 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 65% | 15% | -3.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.2% | 15% | -3.9% |
| 10% | -13.3% | 10% | -13.1% |
| 15% | -21.7% | 5% | -21.5% |
| 20% | -29.4% | 5% | -29.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 90¢ | 90¢ | $60 | $60 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 22¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 22 | $7 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $11 | −$1 | -12% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 17 | $3 | $0 | +12% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $55 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 26 | $45 | +$2 | +4% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $2 | +$1 | +24% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $55 | +$4 | +7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 24 | $54 | +$1 | +1% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 23 | $5 | $0 | -8% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? | Dec 10 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? | Mar 25 | $136 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $67 | +$1 | +2% |
| Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? | Mar 15 | $61 | +$6 | +10% |
| Will "Wicked" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards | Mar 04 | $36 | +$25 | +70% |