Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:15:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c9a…6987 other 88 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$953 (-1%) realized −$953 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 79L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$727per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$9
14 days−$13
30 days−$856
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$48
politics 43% −$34
sports 7% −$891
economics 2% −$1
culture 2% −$2
world 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -7.9% -16.7% 12% 4% -13.7%
≤90d 86 -4.1% -13.2% 9% 7% -10.9%
all 87 -4.1% -13.2% 9% 7% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 7% -10.9%
10% -21.5% 7% -19.5%
15% -29.1% 6% -27.2%
20% -36.0% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$851) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$14 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$564
Realized−$953
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage93d
Avg bet$727
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $564 $564 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $242 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $223 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,356 −$3 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $648 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,399 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 08 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $611 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $239 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $408 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,801 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,053 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $502 −$1 -0%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 25 $802 −$802 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 20 $34 +$33 +97%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 05 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $652 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,451 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $650 −$1 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Flyers vs. Penguins Apr 22 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $752 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $725 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $835 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $885 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,749 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $359 32m
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $360 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $223 19h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $223 20h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $242 20h
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $242 23h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $223 25h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $223 27h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $564 45h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $866 4d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $867 4d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $648 6d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $648 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $706 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $707 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $634 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $635 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $919 10d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $921 10d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $956 11d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $958 11d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $610 12d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $611 12d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 13d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $863 13d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 14d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $784 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $785 14d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $317 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $563.66 · official $563.66 (match) · 245 history records