Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c97…33ec other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 25% +$1
politics 18% +$10
crypto 11% +$1
economics 6% +$1
weather 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.9% -12.2% 40% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 22% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 9 -2.7% -12.0% 22% 0% -10.2%
all 34 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 6% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 6% -8.4%
10% -15.5% 6% -17.1%
15% -23.6% 6% -25.1%
20% -31.1% 6% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.6 per $1 lost it wins $4.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage472d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $7 −$1 -16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $37 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $10 −$1 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $38 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 20-23%? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 05 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times April 11–18? Apr 15 $28 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 14 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $28 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Apr 10 $28 $0 +0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in April? Apr 09 $26 $0 +0%
X allowed to operate in China before May? Apr 09 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in April? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? Apr 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $55 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on April 4? Apr 07 $27 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $26 +$1 +6%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 72°F or higher on March 20? Mar 20 $26 $0 -1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $16 +$10 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $23 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $15 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $37 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 21¢ $18 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $35 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $10 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $5 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $36 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $8 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $13 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 24¢ $35 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.85 · official $35.80 (match) · 118 history records