Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:01:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6c95…f17d other 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,001 (+1%) realized +$1,002 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%7W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$1,152per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$65
other 45% −$163
sports 3% +$1,207
culture 3% −$5
crypto 2% $0
world 1% −$1
economics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -7.8% -16.6% 4% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 87 +2.8% -7.0% 8% 5% -8.7%
all 87 +2.8% -7.0% 8% 5% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 5% -8.7%
10% -15.9% 5% -17.4%
15% -24.0% 5% -25.4%
20% -31.5% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,512) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$4 · ×42.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.74 per $1 lost it wins $3.74
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$1,301
Realized+$1,002
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses7 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)87 / 89
History coverage88d
Avg bet$1,152
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $869 $869 −$0 (-0%)
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $432 $432 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $367 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,695 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,192 −$5 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,574 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,434 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $3,097 −$5 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,512 −$3 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $2,424 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,055 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $2,879 −$4 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $1,356 −$2 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $2,053 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $868 +$1 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $2,759 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $2,051 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,278 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $1,544 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 19 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $4,037 −$5 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $1,493 −$2 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 19 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,675 −$3 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,441 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,598 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $2,499 −$3 -0%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 May 07 $1,108 +$1,250 +113%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $890 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $996 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,929 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,001 −$2 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 22 $21 +$47 +226%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $433 1h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $366 2h
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $367 4h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $432 6h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $433 8h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $869 26h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,574 4d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,576 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,572 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,574 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,432 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,434 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,401 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,403 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,509 7d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,512 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,548 11d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,550 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,055 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,260 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,262 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,500 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,502 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,354 13d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,356 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,102 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,103 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 18d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,300.91 · official $1,300.91 (match) · 256 history records