Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c92…4bbd world 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 428d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$1
crypto 22% +$1
other 18% +$1
politics 14% $0
tech 8% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -9.4%
10% -22.3% 2% -18.1%
15% -29.8% 2% -26.0%
20% -36.6% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

428d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage428d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $77 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $7 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $21 $0 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $43 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $75 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $27 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $11 $0 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Jun 28 $10 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 27 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $8 $0 -5%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in June? Jun 06 $2 $0 -12%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 06 $104 +$1 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok win more than 14% of the vote in the South Korea ele Jun 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $1 $0 -18%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 24 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 25,000-50,000 between Apr 24 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Zaccharie Risacher win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $79000 on Apr 25? Apr 23 $138 +$1 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 22 $109 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $38 23m
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $12 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $31 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $13 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $0 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $2 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $39 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records