Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c91…e5ad crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized +$7 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%22W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day54.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$158
politics 1% $0
other 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +37.3% +24.2% 71% 71% +0.9%
≤30d 31 +37.3% +24.2% 71% 71% +0.9%
≤90d 31 +37.3% +24.2% 71% 71% +0.9%
all 31 +37.3% +24.2% 71% 71% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.2% 71% +0.9%
10% ← realistic here +12.3% 65% -8.8%
15% +1.5% 48% -17.6%
20% -8.5% 39% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$57 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$7
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses22 / 9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day54.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 73¢ 58¢ $100 $80 −$20 (-20%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 29? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$7 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$25 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$21 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$17 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$14 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$29 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$71 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 29 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$86 +326%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $27 +$190 +715%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 29 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $102 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $122 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $32 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $131 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $102 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.70 · official $113.96 · 59 history records