Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c8b…ec48 crypto 1270 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,233 (-1%) realized −$1,230 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%1261W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$367
sports 36% −$86
other 13% +$14
politics 1% +$1
world 0% +$2
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 176 -0.4% -9.9% 99% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 1267 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.8%
all 1267 -0.2% -9.7% 100% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$114 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$338
Realized−$1,230
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1261 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1267 / 1270
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1267 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs Oldboys - Map 2 Winner Oldboys 100¢ 100¢ $196 $196 +$0 (+0%)
Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots Yes 100¢ 100¢ $107 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots Yes 100¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
First Blood in Game 3? Nemiga Gaming 100¢ 50¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum above 1,750 on June 17, 6PM ET? Jun 17 $115 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Pedro Neto: 4+ shots Jun 17 $73 $0 +0%
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida leading at halftime? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: Raja Club Athletic O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: IR Tanger 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $135 +$1 +0%
Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $135 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $134 +$1 +1%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots Jun 17 $114 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $134 $0 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Completed match? Jun 16 $78 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $134 +$1 +0%
StarCraft II: ByuN vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET Jun 16 $134 $0 +0%
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals Jun 16 $128 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 31.5 in Game 1? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Niger 3 - 2 Mauritania? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Cambodia 1 - 0 Bhutan? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Lukas vs. Semenistaja: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Donski vs. Winter: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 10AM ET Jun 04 $49 $0 +0%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Invictus Gaming vs Team Vamos - Game 1 Winne Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs VooDooSh Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Devin Vassell Total 3-Pointers (incl. OT): O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $50 $0 +0%
RCA Zemamra vs. US Yacoub El Mansour: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
RCA Zemamra leading at halftime? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs KO (BO5) - Esports World Cup MESWA Closed Qual Jun 03 $51 $0 +0%
Laura Mair vs. Yiming Dang: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: ShindeN (-1.5) vs 9z Team (+1.5) Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Exact Score: CDPJuniorFC 3 - 2 Atlético Nacional? Jun 03 $87 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 2 Madagascar? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Georgia 3 - 2 Romania? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Birmingham: Kayla Day vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $99 $0 +0%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Elliot Anderson: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $32 1h
Ezri Konsa: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $107 1h
Ethereum above 1,750 on June 17, 6PM ET? BUY No 100¢ $115 2h
Pedro Neto: 4+ shots BUY No 100¢ $73 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $38 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $28 3h
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: Raja Club Athletic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 100¢ $43 6h
Difaâ Hassani El Jadida leading at halftime? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 6h
Kawkab AC vs. IR Tanger: IR Tanger 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $43 6h
Will Kawkab AC win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $10 6h
Set Handicap: Starodubtseva (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 100¢ $38 10h
Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs Team Refuser (+1.5) BUY Team Refuser 100¢ $100 10h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $38 13h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $100 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $135 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 100¢ $135 17h
Ibrahim Maza: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 19h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $135 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $134 20h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $114 23h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $134 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland - Completed match? BUY Yes 100¢ $78 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $134 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $129 28h
StarCraft II: ByuN vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 BUY Solar 100¢ $30 30h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $134 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $25 39h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $21 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $62 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $338.33 · official $337.36 (match) · 3500 history records