Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6c89…5514
other · 55 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$5 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses12 / 42
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage570d
Avg bet$332
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 54 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $106 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $185 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $89 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $94 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $90 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $94 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $89 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $98 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $90 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $93 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $98 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $4 +$7 +165%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03? Apr 06 $16 −$16 -100%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Avalanche Apr 03 $36 +$11 +30%
Stars vs. Bruins Apr 03 $24 +$27 +113%
UFC Fight Night: Ricky Simon vs. Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight, Prelims) Mar 30 $35 −$6 -18%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Mar 30 $21 +$32 +156%
Raptors vs. Clippers Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 25 $24 +$14 +61%
Backpack FDV above $3B one day after launch? Mar 25 $48 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 06 $103 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $13,540 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 75% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 9% −$2
sports 2% +$16
world 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $14 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 7d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $13 15d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $13 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $25 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 17d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 17d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 21d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 21d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 24d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 24d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $98 24d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $98 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $96 31d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $96 32d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $88 35d
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 35d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $88 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 -4.2% -13.3% 20% 11% -9.1%
all 54 -3.6% -12.8% 22% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 9% -9.5%
10% -21.2% 9% -18.2%
15% -28.8% 7% -26.1%
20% -35.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.97 · official $11.97 (match) · 225 history records