Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c89…e8e6 crypto 928 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-2%) realized −$301 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate79%728W / 191L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$63
14 days−$182
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$313
weather 20% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 75 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 65% -13.1%
≤30d 261 -1.7% -11.1% 88% 52% -11.7%
≤90d 531 -5.4% -14.4% 83% 53% -13.3%
all 919 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 61% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 61% -11.9%
10% -19.6% 25% -20.3%
15% -27.3% 15% -28.0%
20% -34.5% 7% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$301
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses728 / 191
Open positions9
Markets (closed)919 / 928
History coverage109d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 919 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? No 87¢ 100¢ $25 $29 +$4 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? No 87¢ 100¢ $23 $27 +$4 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 87¢ 82¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? No 91¢ 84¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? No 86¢ 76¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-11%)
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 18? No 91¢ 55¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-40%)
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? No 86¢ 50¢ $25 $15 −$10 (-41%)
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 18? No 90¢ 44¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$6 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$3 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $23 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 9? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 9? Jun 15 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 12? Jun 15 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +9%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 15? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 15? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $24 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $12 13h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $25 13h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 19? BUY No 86¢ $25 13h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 19? BUY No 91¢ $25 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $22 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $20 40h
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 18? BUY No 90¢ $4 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $23 42h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $25 43h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 86¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 85¢ $23 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $21 2d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $25 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $7 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 87¢ $22 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $25 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? BUY No 84¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.17 · official $185.17 (match) · 2391 history records