Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:48:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c87…b046 other 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate36%52W / 92L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$8
other 25% −$3
politics 15% +$2
sports 13% +$17
economics 4% +$2
crypto 2% +$1
culture 2% $0
weather 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 31 +0.4% -9.2% 39% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 78 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 1% -9.3%
all 144 +0.2% -9.4% 36% 6% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 6% -9.0%
10% -18.1% 4% -17.7%
15% -26.0% 1% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses52 / 92
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)144 / 147
History coverage536d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 15¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-30%)
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $33 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $39 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $69 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $76 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $162 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $73 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $112 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $67 +$2 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $7 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $86 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 28 $34 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $28 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $33 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? May 03 $5 $0 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $63 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $160 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 18 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $29 12m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $10 12m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $43 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $43 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $7 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $39 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $8 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $39 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $29 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $10 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $39 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $39 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $16 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.52 · official $38.43 (match) · 542 history records