Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:13:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6c81…4c46 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$481 (+2%) realized +$456 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate88%195W / 27L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$1,997now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$411
14 days+$476
30 days+$583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$505
politics 19% +$118
finance 12% +$233
crypto 5% +$51
tech 4% +$40
sports 2% −$51
economics 2% −$472
culture 0% −$2
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 +1.3% -8.4% 94% 9% -5.9%
≤30d 176 -2.6% -11.9% 88% 11% -6.4%
≤90d 218 -1.2% -10.6% 88% 11% -6.3%
all 222 -1.5% -10.9% 88% 11% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 11% -8.0%
10% -19.4% 3% -16.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -24.8%
20% -34.3% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$26 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,997
Realized+$456
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses195 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)222 / 245
History coverage97d
Avg bet$111
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Revolut IPO before 2027? No 92¢ 94¢ $560 $571 +$11 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 95¢ 100¢ $285 $299 +$14 (+5%)
Mamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $288 $298 +$10 (+3%)
Will Trump attend 0 World Cup matches? No 96¢ 92¢ $191 $184 −$7 (-4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $172 $181 +$9 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $79 $84 +$5 (+6%)
Will Anthropic IPO by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $59 $61 +$2 (+4%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 99¢ $54 $59 +$5 (+9%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 97¢ 95¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 80¢ 69¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-13%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.7m barrels per day in 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $27 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 73¢ 78¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.5m barrels per day in 2026? No 76¢ 88¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+16%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-4%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 40¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-34%)
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? No 89¢ 92¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.4m barrels per day in 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Will Trump say "Soccer" this week? Yes 80¢ 42¢ $17 $9 −$8 (-48%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 70¢ 24¢ $14 $5 −$9 (-65%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Screwworm National Emergency declared by June 30? No 35¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "History" during the Czechia vs South Africa F Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA Jun 19 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 19 $28 +$2 +9%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $47 +$3 +6%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 18 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $16 +$4 +22%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 18 $171 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 18 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $58 +$2 +3%
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Jaminton Campaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Luis Díaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? Jun 18 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Declan Rice be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Will Harry Kane be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Kobbie Mainoo be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Reece James be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $192 +$17 +9%
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $146 $0 +0%
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $527 +$3 +0%
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Diogo Costa be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $103 +$7 +7%
Will Francisco Trincão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $143 +$5 +4%
Will Vitinha be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $112 +$3 +2%
Will Rúben Dias be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Nuno Mendes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Gonçalo Ramos be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $46 +$4 +10%
Will Matheus Nunes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $48 +$2 +5%
Will Renato Veiga be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Rui Silva be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $99 +$1 +2%
Will Bruno Fernandes be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $147 +$3 +2%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $259 +$9 +3%
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $48 −$47 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 1 Jun 17 $213 +$9 +4%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $85 +$15 +18%
Will Lionel Messi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 17 $141 +$14 +10%
Will Jules Koundé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $29 +$2 +5%
Will Mike Maignan be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Maxence Lacroix be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappé be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +2%
Will William Saliba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $177 +$13 +8%
Will Marcus Thuram be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $48 +$1 +2%
Will Warren Zaïre-Emery be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Robin Risser be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $17 $0 +1%
Will Brice Samba be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $86 +$1 +2%
Will Dayot Upamecano be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $36 $0 +1%
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $126 +$7 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Brazil vs Haiti FIFA Worl BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FI BUY Yes 92¢ $37 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF SELL Yes 81¢ $16 6h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY Yes 70¢ $14 11h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Germany vs Ivory Coast FIF BUY Yes 84¢ $5 11h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl SELL Yes 76¢ $15 11h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY Yes 94¢ $47 11h
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 86¢ $172 12h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 96¢ $29 13h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 92¢ $19 13h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 23h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World BUY Yes 75¢ $15 23h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIFA BUY Yes 70¢ $14 23h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 79¢ $16 23h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF BUY Yes 90¢ $9 23h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl BUY Yes 78¢ $16 23h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI BUY Yes 81¢ $16 23h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Czechia vs South Africa F BUY Yes 78¢ $31 23h
Will Luis Díaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $62 33h
Will Johan Mojica be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $49 33h
Will Andrés Gómez be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $58 33h
Will Jaminton Campaz be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 98¢ $98 33h
Will Yerry Mina be in Colombia's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $97 33h
Will Elliot Anderson be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 36h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 36h
Will Nico O'Reilly be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 36h
Will Jordan Pickford be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 36h
Will Ivan Toney be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $49 37h
Will Kobbie Mainoo be in England's Starting 11? BUY No 97¢ $97 37h
Will Gonçalo Inácio be in Portugal's Starting 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,996.54 · official $1,996.82 (match) · 788 history records