Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c81…187e sports 173 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%29W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$7
politics 23% −$3
other 23% −$5
economics 9% $0
crypto 8% +$1
world 7% +$4
culture 3% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 173 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses29 / 144
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage157d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 08 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 15 $127 −$1 -1%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 16 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 12 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 12 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $105 −$1 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 THE PLAYERS Championship? Mar 10 $54 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $49 $0 -1%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $303 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 07 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 06 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 06 $97 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $95 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $46 +$3 +7%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 03 $177 $0 -0%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $157 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 01 $99 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $202 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 01 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $103 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 28 $149 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 6h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $38 13d
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $38 13d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $40 24d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 24d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $44 36d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $44 37d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $48 96d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $48 96d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $41 96d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $42 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 95¢ $43 96d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $43 97d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $38 97d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $39 100d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 100d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 100d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL No 96¢ $49 100d
Will Tottenham Hotspur reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY No 96¢ $49 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $42 100d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 98¢ $42 101d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 101d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $42 101d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 93¢ $52 101d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 94¢ $53 101d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 101d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $48 101d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 101d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 671 history records