Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c80…63e3 crypto 565 markets active 1d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$317 (-6%) realized −$60 · open −$257
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%222W / 339L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day38.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$81
14 days−$95
30 days−$139
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$171
world 8% −$210
weather 0% −$11
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 213 -3.8% -12.9% 35% 35% -13.1%
≤30d 561 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 38% -12.1%
≤90d 561 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 38% -12.1%
all 561 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 38% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 37% -20.5%
15% -30.1% 35% -28.2%
20% -36.9% 33% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$257
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses222 / 339
Open positions4
Markets (closed)561 / 565
History coverage18d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day38.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 10¢ 0¢ $141 $2 −$139 (-99%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 57¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 304 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$30 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$28 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$28 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$4 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$7 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$22 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 26h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 35h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $5 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.54 · official $2.54 (match) · 976 history records