Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c80…89b2 politics 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$9 (+3%) realized +$10 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 223d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$1
crypto 13% −$1
politics 12% $0
economics 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +12.2% +1.5% 50% 25% +0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 25% +0.1%
10% -8.2% 25% -9.4%
15% -17.1% 25% -18.2%
20% -25.2% 25% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.43 per $1 lost it wins $7.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage223d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $180 $179 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 7? Nov 07 $35 −$1 -4%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 07 $20 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 05 $20 +$10 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.12 · official $209.12 (match) · 9 history records