Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

6C 0x6c80…e0cd other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$64 (+19%) realized +$65 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$56per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-47.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-41.8%	-47.3%	40%	40%	+14.7%
≤30d	5	-41.8%	-47.3%	40%	40%	+14.7%
≤90d	5	-41.8%	-47.3%	40%	40%	+14.7%
all	5	-41.8%	-47.3%	40%	40%	+14.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-47.3%	40%	+14.7%
10%	-52.3%	40%	+3.7%
15%	-56.9%	40%	-6.3%
20%	-61.2%	0%	-15.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -42% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$10 · ×4.61 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.07 per $1 lost it wins $3.07

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$65

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$56

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	77¢	76¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$101	+$44	+44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$101	+$48	+48%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$101	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$149	18h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	23¢	$10	21h
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	31¢	$10	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$101	22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.35 · official $99.35 (match) · 8 history records