Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:29:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c80…6ff1 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$219 (+2%) realized +$237 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%7W / 19L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day19.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$956now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$1,921
world 13% −$1,410
sports 10% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-49.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -44.6% -49.8% 27% 27% -5.8%
≤30d 26 -44.6% -49.8% 27% 27% -5.8%
≤90d 26 -44.6% -49.8% 27% 27% -5.8%
all 26 -44.6% -49.8% 27% 27% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.8% 27% -5.8%
10% -54.6% 27% -14.9%
15% -59.0% 27% -23.1%
20% -63.0% 23% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -45% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -82% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$598 vs −$198 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$956
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses7 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions8
Markets (closed)26 / 34
History coverage3d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day19.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $480 $475 −$5 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $189 $188 −$2 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 36¢ $74 $71 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 26¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $93 +$107 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $128 +$172 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $577 +$423 +73%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $215 −$212 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,736 +$2,164 +58%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $149 −$146 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $110 +$190 +172%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,800 +$900 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $167 +$233 +140%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $85 −$82 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $107 −$104 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $108 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $108 −$105 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $108 −$105 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $138 −$138 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,432 −$1,410 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $805 −$800 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $139 −$136 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $123 50m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $191 52m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $75 57m
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 16h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 16h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $93 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $128 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $577 16h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $215 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $32 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $34 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $296 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 23h
Spread: Austria (-2.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $47 25h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $77 25h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,825 25h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 36h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 36h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $13 36h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $955.50 · official $955.50 (match) · 61 history records