Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6C 0x6c7f…f3cd politics 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,611 (-50%) realized −$2,609 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$351now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2,582
sports 24% −$154
world 24% +$126
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.1% +11.4% 43% 43% +5.1%
≤30d 7 +23.1% +11.4% 43% 43% +5.1%
≤90d 15 +10.5% -0.0% 67% 40% -10.9%
all 26 -32.9% -39.3% 38% 23% -56.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 23% -56.5%
10% -45.1% 19% -60.7%
15% -50.4% 8% -64.5%
20% -55.3% 8% -68.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -75% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$191 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$351
Realized−$2,609
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage594d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $207 $206 −$1 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $24 +$76 +325%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $91 +$28 +31%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $44 −$43 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $59 +$122 +206%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 May 17 $303 −$300 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $277 +$85 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 28 $261 +$17 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $240 +$21 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $222 +$18 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? Apr 13 $211 +$11 +5%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 07 $171 +$40 +23%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $151 +$20 +14%
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? Feb 08 $1,597 −$1,597 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the Feb 08 $420 −$420 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 190 and 204 seats in the Jan 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win fewer than 190 seats in the 2026 Jan 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party loose any seats in Japanese snap ele Jan 26 $20 −$20 -100%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 06 $117 −$87 -74%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 06 $250 −$166 -66%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $100 −$73 -73%
Will the Democratic candidate win Iowa by 2.0-3.0%? Nov 06 $10 −$10 -97%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D House Nov 06 $140 −$135 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $147 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $209 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 23¢ $24 23h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $20 23h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $102 26h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $44 28h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $91 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $8 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $59 47h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $303 36d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 76¢ $277 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $277 54d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $261 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 97¢ $261 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 89¢ $240 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $240 61d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $222 70d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $211 74d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 76d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 81¢ $171 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $171 79d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 85¢ $151 98d
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? BUY No $33 134d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the BUY Yes $250 134d
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? BUY No $91 134d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the BUY Yes 15¢ $62 134d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the BUY Yes 15¢ $2 134d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the BUY Yes 14¢ $6 134d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win between 235 and 249 seats in the BUY Yes 13¢ $100 134d
Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election? BUY No $100 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $350.80 · official $350.80 (match) · 72 history records