Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c7b…499d crypto 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+2%) realized +$49 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate99%234W / 3L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$175now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$40
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$60
politics 5% +$5
finance 3% −$19
other 2% +$1
economics 0% $0
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +1.8% -7.9% 99% 1% -8.0%
≤30d 237 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.3%
≤90d 237 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.3%
all 237 +1.5% -8.2% 99% 1% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 1% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 0% -17.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.1%
20% -32.4% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$175
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses234 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)237 / 247
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+5%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be between 80% and 85%? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 10h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $175.25 · official $175.26 (match) · 484 history records