Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6c78…f71b crypto 926 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,299 (+8%) realized +$9,299 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%517W / 409L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$2,579
other 1% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -0.6% -10.0% 48% 48% +7.9%
≤30d 382 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 53% -8.6%
≤90d 926 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 54% -7.6%
all 926 -7.4% -16.2% 56% 54% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 54% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 48% -16.4%
15% -31.5% 37% -24.5%
20% -38.3% 26% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$98 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,299
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses517 / 409
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)926 / 926
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$124
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 926 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$7 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $170 −$170 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $373 +$590 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $92 +$287 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$5 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$10 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $267 +$68 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$70 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $63 +$33 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $148 +$134 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$8 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $157 +$179 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$37 +70%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +32%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $401 +$392 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $118 +$204 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +26%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $11 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $70 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $53 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $124 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $92 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $35 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $13 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $21 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $35 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $210 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $4 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 27h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $63 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $14 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $41 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $29 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $23 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $43 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records