Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

6C 0x6c75…8ea6 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover

Total PnL −$42 (-7%) realized +$75 · open −$117

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$128per market

Trades / day8.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+17.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+30.1%	+17.7%	75%	75%	+42.1%
≤30d	4	+30.1%	+17.7%	75%	75%	+42.1%
≤90d	4	+30.1%	+17.7%	75%	75%	+42.1%
all	4	+30.1%	+17.7%	75%	75%	+42.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+17.7%	75%	+42.1%
10%	+6.4%	50%	+28.5%
15%	-3.9%	25%	+16.1%
20%	-13.3%	25%	+4.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 90% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +57% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +30% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$83 vs −$60 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×4.11 per $1 lost it wins $4.11

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$91

Realized+$75

Unrealized−$117

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$128

Trades / day8.5

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	65¢	28¢	$208	$91	−$117 (-56%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$13	+13%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND	Jun 23	$123	+$223	+182%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$45	+$11	+25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$61	−$60	-99%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$210	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	64¢	$97	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	88¢	$100	2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND	SELL	51¢	$346	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$13	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	67¢	$21	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$22	14h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND	BUY	17¢	$123	23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	66¢	$61	32h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.26 · official $91.29 (match) · 14 history records