Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c75…8a96 crypto 1423 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,839 (-11%) realized −$1,818 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%639W / 760L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day54.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days+$35
14 days−$382
30 days−$308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$1,099
other 10% −$592
sports 10% −$138
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -18.7% -26.4% 26% 26% +4.4%
≤30d 1243 -6.0% -14.9% 45% 29% -12.3%
≤90d 1399 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 29% -20.6%
all 1399 -5.0% -14.1% 46% 29% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 29% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 24% -28.2%
15% -29.8% 21% -35.2%
20% -36.7% 19% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized−$1,818
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses639 / 760
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1399 / 1423
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day54.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 65¢ 88¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 80¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Japan be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+19%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 76¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 40¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 6¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-80%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-58%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-81%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 +251%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$4 +251%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$4 +264%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$15 +251%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $12 −$2 -20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$8 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$11 +266%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $77 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $6 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $6 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $6 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $0 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $6 13h
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 62¢ $61 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 AND Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 6¢ $5 8d
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? BUY No 99¢ $2 8d
Will Czechia be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.08 · official $249.08 (match) · 3500 history records