Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6C 0x6c74…4b9a other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,139 (+45%) realized +$1,144 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +134% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +112% what you keep after slip
Net edge+112%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$590
30 days+$901
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$79
sports 30% +$1,043
crypto 10% −$1
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+112.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 8 +51.2% +36.8% 88% 38% +84.9%
all 18 +134.3% +112.0% 94% 22% +74.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +112.0% 22% +74.1%
10% +91.7% 22% +57.5%
15% +73.2% 22% +42.3%
20% +56.2% 22% +28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +134% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +223% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$1 · ×51.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×872.25 per $1 lost it wins $872.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1,337
Realized+$1,144
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage178d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $748 $738 −$10 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $604 $599 −$5 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $342 +$590 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $180 +$311 +172%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $228 +$142 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? May 07 $190 −$1 -1%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? May 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 07 $16 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? May 07 $18 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $15 $0 +1%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? Mar 05 $22 $0 +1%
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 05 $17 $0 +0%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? Feb 05 $17 $0 +3%
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? Feb 05 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in January? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 05 $24 $0 +0%
US bank failure by January 31? Feb 05 $2 +$83 +3471%
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition Jan 09 $27 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $366 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $610 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 37¢ $396 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $342 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $180 22d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 61¢ $228 47d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY No $0 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY No $1 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $188 75d
Bill Clinton charged by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 91d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 100¢ $14 96d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 98¢ $16 102d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? BUY No 99¢ $18 110d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 116d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? BUY No 99¢ $22 132d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17 147d
Will Solana reach $210 in January? BUY No 100¢ $24 147d
Will Palantir reach $258 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 147d
US bank failure by January 31? BUY Yes $2 147d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $24 159d
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 100¢ $13 159d
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? BUY No 97¢ $17 165d
Nothing Ever Happens: Russia Edition BUY Yes 98¢ $27 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,336.84 · official $1,336.84 (match) · 41 history records