Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:28:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

6C 0x6c72…bc79 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 469d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$47 (+6%) realized +$48 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate71%10W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$43per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit35%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$127

14 days+$127

30 days+$127

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-14.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+35.2%	+22.3%	100%	88%	+14.8%
≤30d	8	+35.2%	+22.3%	100%	88%	+14.8%
≤90d	8	+35.2%	+22.3%	100%	88%	+14.8%
all	14	-5.5%	-14.5%	71%	57%	-3.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.5%	57%	-3.2%
10%	-22.7%	43%	-12.5%
15%	-30.2%	21%	-21.0%
20%	-37.0%	7%	-28.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 26% · top 2 45% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -6% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -45% → late +34% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.48 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

469d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized+$48

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses10 / 4

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 17

History coverage469d

Avg bet$43

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	48¢	48¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+1%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Yes	61¢	60¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$51	+$13	+25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$101	+$24	+24%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$10	+$8	+83%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$51	+$23	+45%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$75	+$12	+15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$100	+$10	+10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 23	$8	+$3	+34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$76	+$35	+46%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02?	Apr 02	$48	−$42	-88%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21?	Mar 21	$5	−$4	-89%
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21?	Mar 20	$18	$0	+2%
Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21?	Mar 20	$30	+$5	+16%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-16?	Mar 19	$19	−$19	-100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	Mar 16	$23	−$23	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	48¢	$51	1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	61¢	$51	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	74¢	$63	8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$51	13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	80¢	$101	2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$10	3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	BUY	20¢	$10	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	93¢	$73	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$51	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	99¢	$87	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$75	4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	74¢	$8	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$100	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$76	4d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02?	SELL Yes	7¢	$6	450d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-04-02?	BUY Yes	60¢	$48	457d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21?	SELL Yes	4¢	$1	462d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 21?	BUY Yes	36¢	$5	463d
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21?	SELL Yes	90¢	$18	463d
Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21?	SELL Yes	74¢	$35	463d
Ethereum above $1,900 on March 21?	BUY Yes	88¢	$18	464d
Bitcoin above $83,000 on March 21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$30	464d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	SELL Yes	0¢	$0	468d
Will Tottenham win on 2025-03-16?	BUY Yes	28¢	$19	469d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	27¢	$13	469d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	469d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.29 · official $99.29 (match) · 32 history records