Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c70…7aea politics 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$1
world 22% −$7
other 16% +$2
sports 6% −$4
weather 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 38% 12% -10.8%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 36% 9% -10.5%
≤90d 23 +0.8% -8.8% 39% 4% -9.8%
all 31 -1.6% -11.0% 42% 6% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 6% -10.3%
10% -19.5% 3% -18.9%
15% -27.3% 3% -26.7%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage486d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $34 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $76 −$3 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $124 −$4 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $25 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $161 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $146 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 22 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 19 $175 +$1 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $143 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $178 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $41 +$1 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 01 $220 $0 +0%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 30 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on March 4? Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona State vs. Arizona Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? Mar 04 $14 $0 -2%
Will John Fetterman applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $17 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 31-32°F on February 20? Mar 04 $11 +$5 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 3h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $36 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 18h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 18h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $12 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 35h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $19 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $22 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $30 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $37 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $38 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $27 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records