Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c6e…c234 sports 476 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$398 (-11%) realized −$382 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%99W / 359L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$188
14 days−$139
30 days−$203
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$231
other 24% −$76
crypto 3% −$47
world 3% −$43
tech 2% −$11
politics 2% −$10
weather 1% −$17
culture 1% −$12
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -32.3% -38.7% 19% 19% -30.3%
≤30d 135 -16.0% -24.0% 24% 22% -25.1%
≤90d 312 -21.0% -28.5% 27% 24% -17.8%
all 458 -20.9% -28.4% 22% 20% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 20% -21.5%
10% -35.3% 19% -29.0%
15% -41.5% 18% -35.9%
20% -47.3% 16% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$382
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses99 / 359
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions15
Markets (closed)458 / 476
History coverage143d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+59%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-37%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 10¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 296 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$27 +38%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 21 $18 −$3 -16%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m Jun 21 $18 −$3 -18%
Will Elliot Anderson join Manchester City? Jun 21 $3 −$2 -81%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $2 +$18 +700%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $71 +$35 +50%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-4.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $13 −$12 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Will "Obsession" 6th Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Jun 19 $9 −$4 -43%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 +$14 +36%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $39 +$23 +58%
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Jun 19 $8 −$1 -7%
Will Viktor Hovland lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the third round? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$18 +44%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 167.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $5 +$57 +1116%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +42%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $29 +$13 +45%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$9 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$13 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $71 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 10¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 2¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 3¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 12¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 10¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $1 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $0 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91.38 · official $91.39 (match) · 988 history records