Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:46:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c66…686f other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$41 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$344now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 94% +$5
other 2% +$5
politics 1% −$24
tech 1% +$2
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +2.3% -7.4% 89% 0% -7.6%
≤90d 27 +0.6% -9.0% 59% 0% -9.4%
all 27 +0.6% -9.0% 59% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.71 per $1 lost it wins $5.71
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$344
Realized+$41
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)27 / 39
History coverage45d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $193 $193 −$0 (-0%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 79¢ $44 $69 +$26 (+59%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 21¢ $44 $18 −$26 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? No 92¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 88¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 08 $6 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $178 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $113 +$6 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 29 $55 +$2 +3%
XMAQUINA FDV above $10M one day after launch? May 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? May 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? May 11 $61 +$2 +3%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 11 $26 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? May 11 $33 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? May 11 $37 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 11 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 11 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $4,674 +$5 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,710 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1,500 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $7,579 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 09 $18 −$2 -9%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 09 $20 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $193 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $5 9d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $6 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 100¢ $178 14d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 14d
Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 91¢ $6 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? SELL No 99¢ $14 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $14 27d
XMAQUINA FDV above $10M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 27d
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 42d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 42d
Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 42d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 42d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in May? SELL No 99¢ $37 42d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $95 42d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 42d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $16 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.26 · official $344.26 (match) · 148 history records