Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:02:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c63…9f21 crypto 675 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (124 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$190 (-3%) realized −$190 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate34%231W / 443L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day123.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$384
14 days−$450
30 days−$482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$482
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (124 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 567 -16.1% -24.1% 33% 30% -15.5%
≤30d 674 -13.6% -21.8% 34% 30% -14.6%
≤90d 674 -13.6% -21.8% 34% 30% -14.6%
all 674 -13.6% -21.8% 34% 30% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover123.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 30% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 28% -22.8%
15% -36.1% 25% -30.3%
20% -42.4% 23% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$190
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses231 / 443
Open positions0
Markets (closed)674 / 675
History coverage15d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day123.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 674 Trades
no open positions (355 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$5 +266%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +120%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$4 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $4 25m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.15 · official $0.00 · 2084 history records