Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:52:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6c62…9f09 world 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate25%29W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$6
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$2
other 24% −$1
politics 21% +$2
sports 15% −$5
finance 6% −$3
crypto 2% −$27
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.1% -8.6% 25% 17% -10.0%
≤30d 36 -4.7% -13.8% 25% 8% -9.6%
≤90d 83 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 5% -9.8%
all 116 -2.9% -12.2% 25% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 3% -9.8%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses29 / 87
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage274d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $257 +$2 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $122 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +12%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $152 −$10 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $67 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $41 −$1 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $130 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $234 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $118 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$2 +29%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $114 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $126 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $13 −$2 -17%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $477 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $256 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $468 +$5 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $7 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 02 $229 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $116 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $298 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $115 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $128 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $170 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $117 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 21 $16 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $22 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $2 $0 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $3 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $73 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $462 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $116 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $22 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $115 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $122 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $122 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $38 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $33 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $13 10h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 24¢ $85 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $13 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $83 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $26 14h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $123 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $122 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $122 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $30 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 29h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 44h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $11 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $10 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $45 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $44 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $24 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $67 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $83 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.93 · official $0.00 (match) · 486 history records