Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6c5f…a235 weather 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,194 (+14%) realized +$2,994 · open +$200
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%59W / 58L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$372
7 days+$368
14 days+$283
30 days+$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% +$2,036
other 27% +$1,019
politics 7% −$151
crypto 6% +$121
economics 0% +$201
finance 0% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -15.2% -23.3% 67% 67% +1.7%
≤30d 14 +37.5% +24.4% 79% 79% +3.8%
≤90d 38 +29.9% +17.5% 84% 79% +7.5%
all 117 -0.9% -10.4% 50% 48% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 48% +3.7%
10% -19.0% 38% -6.3%
15% -26.8% 29% -15.3%
20% -34.0% 17% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -46% → late +44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$41 · ×2.26 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.34 per $1 lost it wins $2.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$1,649
Realized+$2,994
Unrealized+$200
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses59 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)117 / 120
History coverage264d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? No 83¢ 88¢ $868 $913 +$45 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 30? No 52¢ 66¢ $560 $718 +$157 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 29? No 72¢ 66¢ $20 $19 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 27 $928 +$372 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $268 −$259 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $1,777 +$255 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 17 $30 +$155 +516%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $244 −$241 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 07 $31 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 07 $393 +$129 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 7? Jun 07 $94 +$18 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $426 +$87 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 06 $1,135 +$191 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 01 $165 +$34 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May May 31 $23 +$20 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 30 $225 +$75 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 28 $92 +$39 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 28? May 28 $63 +$15 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 28? May 28 $377 +$21 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 28? May 28 $148 +$22 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 27? May 27 $29 +$7 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 27 $45 +$27 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 27 $171 −$170 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 26? May 26 $69 +$35 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 26 $37 +$19 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 25 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 25? May 25 $61 +$23 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 24? May 24 $32 +$26 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 24? May 24 $156 +$54 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 23 $392 +$307 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May May 22 $406 −$129 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 22 $0 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 2 May 22 $490 +$478 +98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 70°F or higher on May 1 May 12 $688 +$122 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 9 May 09 $207 +$87 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 8 May 08 $341 +$68 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 7 May 08 $212 +$38 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May May 07 $33 +$15 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May May 07 $547 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on Marc Mar 29 $5 +$57 +1141%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on Mar Mar 29 $259 +$91 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 26 Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 26 Mar 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 24 Mar 26 $23 +$9 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on Marc Mar 26 $63 +$50 +80%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on Mar Mar 26 $396 +$324 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 24 Mar 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 23 Mar 24 $60 +$120 +201%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 23? Mar 24 $177 +$52 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23? Mar 23 $48 −$48 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in January? Mar 23 $183 +$117 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 72¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 52¢ $574 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 29? BUY No 83¢ $876 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 98¢ $39 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 98¢ $293 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 94¢ $969 39h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 72¢ $246 40h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 65¢ $683 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 32¢ $200 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 30¢ $68 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 26¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 95¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $16 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $1,753 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 67¢ $244 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 16¢ $18 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 15¢ $5 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 14¢ $4 12d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $5 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $6 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $5 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $1 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $14 21d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 90¢ $5 21d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? SELL No 80¢ $270 21d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? SELL No 80¢ $32 21d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 7? SELL No 80¢ $48 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,649.17 · official $1,649.17 (match) · 804 history records