Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6C 0x6c5d…4269 crypto 1468 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 61d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$386 (-3%) realized −$391 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate78%1151W / 317L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day33.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$78
14 days−$93
30 days−$135
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$271
other 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 -7.6% -16.4% 53% 53% -16.0%
≤30d 1083 -2.7% -12.0% 76% 58% -11.9%
≤90d 1468 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 51% -11.5%
all 1468 -2.9% -12.1% 78% 51% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 51% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 26% -20.0%
15% -28.2% 15% -27.7%
20% -35.3% 11% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$391
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses1151 / 317
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1468 / 1468
History coverage61d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day33.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1468 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 0¢ 50¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$5 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $6 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.39 · official $9.52 · 3500 history records