Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6C
0x6c5c…1d24
weather · 296 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$43 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$43 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$119
Realized+$43
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses164 / 71
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions61
Markets (closed)235 / 296
History coverage92d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 61 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? No 90¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? No 92¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 14? No 98¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 11 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% −$2
other 22% −$1
crypto 11% +$43
weather 9% −$1
sports 9% $0
economics 7% $0
world 6% $0
tech 4% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $2 11m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 16 BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -2.0% -11.4% 93% 13% -11.2%
≤30d 153 -2.0% -11.3% 93% 13% -9.3%
≤90d 230 +1.8% -7.9% 70% 16% -8.9%
all 235 +1.8% -7.9% 70% 16% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 16% -8.9%
10% -16.7% 11% -17.6%
15% -24.8% 8% -25.6%
20% -32.1% 6% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.51 · official $118.51 (match) · 745 history records